• Understanding the Fed’s Pause on Rate Hikes

    Remain vigilant as we might see more rate hikes later this summer

    The decision by the Federal Reserve to pause its upward trajectory of the federal funds rate – after 10 straight hikes over the past 14 months – has significant implications for investors. As the central bank of the United States, the Fed’s monetary policy decisions have a profound impact on financial markets and the investment landscape.

    Let’s explore what this pause means for investors and explore potential strategies to navigate this new environment.

    Understanding the Pause

    To grasp the implications of the Fed’s pause, it is crucial to understand the underlying reasons for this shift in policy. The Federal Reserve’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability and support maximum employment. The decision to halt rate hikes suggests that the Fed believes inflationary pressures may be lessening or that the economy requires more time to fully recover. By pausing rate hikes, the central bank aims to provide ongoing support to economic growth.

    Bond and Fixed-Income Investments

    The Fed’s pause on rate hikes has immediate implications for bond and fixed-income investors. Typically, rising interest rates lead to declining bond prices. However, with the Fed indicating a pause in rate hikes, bond prices may stabilize or even experience modest gains. This is particularly relevant for long-term bondholders who were concerned about potential losses in a rising rate environment.

    Nevertheless, investors should remain vigilant. While the pause in rate hikes may provide some relief, it is essential to monitor inflationary trends and the Federal Reserve’s future actions. Unexpected shifts in inflation expectations or the resumption of rate hikes could still impact fixed-income investments.

    Equity Markets and Investment Strategies

    The Fed’s pause on rate hikes can also have a significant impact on equity markets. Historically, low interest rates have been supportive of stock prices, as they reduce borrowing costs for businesses and increase the present value of future earnings. Investors should consider the potential for continued strength in equity markets as long as the pause in rate hikes persists.

    However, it is crucial to exercise caution and avoid complacency. Market conditions can change rapidly, and investors should remain attentive to both global economic developments and the possibility of future rate hikes. Adopting a diversified investment strategy that balances exposure across sectors and geographies can help mitigate risks associated with potential market volatility.

    Related Report: Charles Schwab’s Mid-Year Outlook

    Sector Rotation and Asset Allocation

    The pause in rate hikes offers an opportunity for investors to reassess their sector allocations and asset mix.

    Certain sectors, such as utilities and real estate, tend to perform well in a low-interest-rate environment.

    These sectors often exhibit stable cash flows and attractive dividend yields, making them appealing to income-focused investors.

    Conversely, sectors like financials and banking may face challenges due to narrower interest rate spreads. Investors may consider rotating their investments into sectors that could benefit from the pause in rate hikes, while also maintaining a long-term perspective and keeping diversification in mind.

    International Considerations

    The Fed’s decision to pause rate hikes also has implications beyond the United States. Lower interest rates in the U.S. can lead to a weaker U.S. dollar, potentially benefiting international investments and exporters. Investors should consider the potential impact on currency valuations and diversify their portfolios by allocating a portion of their investments to international markets.

    What Investors Should Do

    The Federal Reserve’s pause on rate hikes represents a significant development for investors. The decision suggests that the central bank is carefully monitoring economic conditions and adjusting its policies accordingly. Bond and fixed-income investors may find some respite, while equity investors should remain attentive to potential shifts in market dynamics.

    To navigate this evolving landscape, investors should adopt a diversified approach, reassess sector allocations, and consider the potential benefits of international investments.

    Staying informed, monitoring economic indicators, and seeking professional advice can help investors make well-informed decisions in this environment of paused rate hikes. Even if it only lasts for a month.

  • How Annuities React to Rising Interest Rates

    On March 16th, the Federal Reserve increased its federal funds rate from 0.25% to 0.50%, the first increase since 2018. This rate matters because it has a ripple effect on every aspect of consumers’ financial lives, from the annual percentage rate (APR) on credit cards to investment returns. While some investments, like bonds, react negatively to an increase in the benchmark interest rate, others thrive – like annuities. Keep in mind, there are hundreds if not thousands of annuities to choose from and they are not for everyone. Make sure to speak to your financial professional before considering adding an annuity to your portfolio.

    Different Types of Annuities

    • Fixed Annuity – The initial premium invested in a fixed annuity grows at a specific rate of interest for a specific time period. When the Federal Reserve raises its benchmark rate, the interest rate of fixed annuities typically follows suit, which results in better payouts for investors.

    • Fixed-Indexed Annuities – Similar to fixed annuities, this investment credits interest as well, however, the yield is calculated based on the performance of a market index, such as the S&P 500. When the interest rate environment inches up, like it is doing now, the growth potential of this investment increases. Akin to fixed annuities, there is no loss of principal – even when the market index it is following loses value.

    • Variable Annuities – These investments are more closely tied to equity markets because, traditionally, they hold contract assets in mutual-fund-like subaccounts. In this case, the operative term is “variable” because when equity markets fluctuate, so do the returns of variable annuities. Where the Fed Interest rate becomes important is if the contract owner adds, for a fee, a guaranteed living benefit rider that secures a separate income payout. Rising rates will give insurance companies more flexibility to increase payout rates on living benefits.

    What’s Next for the Fed?

    Federal Reserve policymakers will meet again in May to decide whether or not to increase the federal funds rate again. Since 2008, the rate has failed to get past 2.50% before tapering back down to zero. Prior to the Great Recession, the rate once approached 20 percent, as shown in the chart below.

    With inflation at its highest point in four decades (7.9%), the Federal Reserve is projecting to counter aggressively through seven total rate hikes this year that would reach 2.00%.

    If you are considering adding an annuity to your portfolio, an increasing interest rate environment should help bolster the balance sheets of the insurance companies who offer them, resulting in more competitive products with higher crediting rates.