Will Charles III’s first act as King be to raise inflation? Will CPI show the Fed’s fight against inflation is far from over? And will there be any signs of a breakthrough on the debt ceiling? I’m Jeff Kleintop with 90 seconds on all this and much more of what you need to know for the week ahead.
The weekend’s coronation of King Charles III is expected to have cost £100million, but deliver £350 million in extra sales for UK pubs and restaurants. That’s a nice multiplier effect, but it comes when services and food inflation are already high and could add to further inflation pressures.
On Tuesday, President Biden is scheduled to meet with congressional leaders on the debt ceiling. Treasury Secretary Yellen has said the default could come as soon as June 1st. Also, Tuesday is Victory Day in Russia, commemorating World War II, as a spring offensive by Ukrainian forces appears to be getting under way. A day later, NATO defense chiefs meet in Brussels.
Finally on Tuesday, China’s inflation data is likely to keep the window open for the People’s Bank of China to add stimulus with a rate cut in coming months. CPI likely rose just 0.3% from a year ago. On Wednesday, falling hard on the heels of the Fed’s meeting last week where they signaled an end to the series of rate hikes, the April CPI release may highlight that the fight against inflation is far from over. In year-over-year terms, CPI inflation is expected to remain at 5%, with core inflation stubbornly elevated at 5.4.
On Thursday, the Bank of England is set to lift interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.5%. The Central Bank is likely to cite recent surprises in CPI and wage data as justification.