From GDP reports, to the Fed’s preferred wage and inflation measures, to tech earnings, this is Jeff Kleintop with 90 seconds on what you need to know for the week ahead.
Last week, we got through a big week for Financials’ earnings, which showed overall growth in profits and the stocks added to their gains and are now the 2nd best performing sector in April. This week, we hear from many big tech companies and analysts who are expecting a big decline in tech profits – double-digits this quarter – one of the biggest declines in decades, as businesses curb spending and face higher borrowing costs. Any earnings misses on already-revised down estimates could weigh on the sector, which is among the worst performers in April. In the US, the Fed’s favored measure of inflation, the PCE deflator, on Friday will probably tell a similar story to CPI. Falling energy prices and slower rental inflation may mean a deceleration in the headline reading, but core inflation is likely to remain elevated. And that, combined with a firm Employment Cost Index report, means this week’s data will probably make it even more likely the Fed will hike by 25 basis points at the early-May meeting. Like the US GDP data this week, the Eurozone GDP figures are likely to show the economy grew in the first quarter. And that comes despite worries entering the quarter of a potential energy price shock-induced recession. Europe’s stocks have been outperforming the US so far this year on better-than-expected growth, but a resilient economy means underlying inflation may stay higher for longer. We get April CPI data for Germany, France, and Spain, which may add to the pressure on the European Central Bank to carry on hiking rates.